Bitcoin below $80K today marks the sharpest test of a critical support zone in weeks, as a collision of macro headwinds, institutional selling, and a looming Federal Reserve decision has put the cryptocurrency firmly on the defensive heading into what could be the most consequential seven days of the autumn.
BTC was trading near $79,947 on October 26, down about 1% over 24 hours. The cryptocurrency had fallen as low as $79,332 during the session, with its market capitalization standing near $1.61 trillion.
The decline extended a weekend drop of approximately $2,000
, leaving Bitcoin
well below its October high near $87,400, following another failed attempt to hold above $84,000.
Three forces converged to push Bitcoin below $80K today. The first is a sharp reversal in spot ETF flows.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs lost $635.6 million on October 22 and another $137.9 million on October 23, according to Farside Investors — a reversal that followed three straight sessions of inflows totaling about $1.07 billion.
That October 22 withdrawal was the largest single daily outflow since June.
BlackRock alone recorded $254.1 million in outflows on October 22. On the following day, BlackRock’s IBIT accounted for $110.3 million of outflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC lost $31.8 million.
The second force is leveraged liquidations piling on top of the ETF selling.
Leveraged long liquidations added meaningful selling pressure, with $154 million liquidated across more than 62,000 traders, including $118 million in long positions.
Ethereum recorded the largest liquidation total at $43.17 million, while Bitcoin followed with $32.94 million — figures indicating that traders who had bet on higher prices absorbed most of the losses.
The third, and perhaps most durable, factor is the macro backdrop.
Brent crude is trading above $110 per barrel, keeping inflation concerns firmly in focus
, while
funding concerns have also severely impacted AI-related trading, with CoreWeave falling over 10% and Meta dropping more than 9% for the week.
Risk appetite across global markets has weakened broadly, and crypto is feeling the ripple effect.
For holders and short-term traders, the $80,000 zone is where the battle lines are drawn.
Glassnode estimates the cost basis for U.S. spot ETF and corporate treasury buyers sits around $80,000 to $81,500
— meaning many institutional participants who bought through ETFs are near or below their entry point.
Glassnode placed its True Market Mean around $77,600, and its analysts described a daily close below $80,000 as a condition that would bring that reference level into focus.
Technically, BTC has found some support near $79,000, and a move back above $82,000 would be needed to improve short-term momentum.
Amid the gloom, one eye-catching development out of CoinDesk offers a contrarian data point.
A single trader placed a $68 million bet that BTC’s spot price would climb above $90,000 just after the U.S. midterm elections in early November.
On October 20, a single wallet bought 800 contracts of $90,000 call options expiring on November 6 on decentralized platform Derive, with each contract representing one BTC.
Derive told CoinDesk this is “the largest open Bitcoin position on Derive.”
The bullish sentiment doesn’t stop there:
Derive’s market-implied probability of bitcoin exceeding $100,000 by Christmas rose from 9.7% a week ago to 12%, while the implied chance of bitcoin falling below $70,000 by Christmas dropped from 15.6% to 11%.
What to watch next:
the Federal Reserve’s October 28 interest-rate decision and an October 30 options expiry could both bring further volatility.
The Fed is widely expected to keep rates at 3.75%–4.00%, though a December hike is considered likely.
Any hawkish surprise in the statement or press conference could accelerate selling, while a softer-than-expected tone might give Bitcoin the relief rally it needs to reclaim lost ground. GDP and PCE inflation data land the following day, adding another layer of macro risk for traders to navigate before the week is out.
Whether a post-midterm catalyst materializes or the macro pressure continues to grind prices lower, the $79,000–$80,000 band remains the line in the sand for the market right now.
This article is for information only and is not financial advice. Crypto prices are volatile; always do your own research.